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How to think about inflation

8 minute read

Published:

In this post I discuss how to think about inflation. This a topic which routinely captures a lot of media attention, especially given the roller coaster inflation has been on in the last 3 years. Along with this attention, comes a lot of misunderstanding of what inflation is, what causes it, and how it should be controlled. This post will hopefully clarify these concepts.

The Gamma Squeeze Phenomenon

4 minute read

Published:

In recent years, “gamma squeezes” have become a hot topic amongst practitioners and academics. This phenomenon, rooted in options trading mechanics, can have a significant impact on underlying stock prices, often leading to rapid and significant price movements. In this post I’ll discuss what a gamma squeeze is, how it occurs, and look at some recent examples. To understand a gamma squeeze, it’s important to know a bit about options and the concept of “gamma.” Options are financial derivatives that give investors the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a stock at a specific price (the “strike price”) by a certain date.

Predicting Industry Economic Activity

7 minute read

Published:

In this post I discuss whether there is useful information contained in industry-specific credit spreads for predicting economic activity.

The pre-RBA drift

3 minute read

Published:

In this post I discuss the pre-FOMC drift and whether there exists a pre-RBA drift.

Monetary policy and beliefs

5 minute read

Published:

In this post I discuss monetary policy communication and macroeconomic forecasts.

Inflation expectations and CBO announcements

2 minute read

Published:

In this post I ask a simple question, do expectations of future inflation change on Congressional Budget Office (CBO) announcement days? Specifically, I examine the announcement of the CBO’s budget deficit forecasts, which occur semi-annually.

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