Sitemap
A list of all the posts and pages found on the site. For you robots out there is an XML version available for digesting as well.
Pages
Posts
Distance to Default (DtD) using the Merton model in R
Published:
The Merton model, introduced by Robert C. Merton in 1974, conceptualizes a company’s equity as a call option on its assets, with the debt’s face value serving as the strike price. This framework is instrumental in assessing a firm’s credit risk by estimating the probability of default.
Path dependence in portfolios
Published:
A recent discussion with a friend led me to think about path dependence in portfolios. This idea is captured by the statistical property of ergodicity. Deeper discussions can be found here, or here. The ergodic property compares the time average to the ensemble average. The time average, looks at the behaviour of a single individual over time. An ensemble average, looks at the behaviour of many individuals at a single point in time. A system is said to be “non-ergodic” when the time averages of individual realizations differs from the ensemble average of all possible outcomes. In other words, in a non-ergodic system, the outcomes experienced by a single individual over time are not representative of the average outcomes across all individuals at a single point in time.
How to think about inflation
Published:
In this post I discuss how to think about inflation. This a topic which routinely captures a lot of media attention, especially given the roller coaster inflation has been on in the last 3 years. Along with this attention, comes a lot of misunderstanding of what inflation is, what causes it, and how it should be controlled. This post will hopefully clarify these concepts.
The Gamma Squeeze Phenomenon
Published:
In recent years, “gamma squeezes” have become a hot topic amongst practitioners and academics. This phenomenon, rooted in options trading mechanics, can have a significant impact on underlying stock prices, often leading to rapid and significant price movements. In this post I’ll discuss what a gamma squeeze is, how it occurs, and look at some recent examples. To understand a gamma squeeze, it’s important to know a bit about options and the concept of “gamma.” Options are financial derivatives that give investors the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a stock at a specific price (the “strike price”) by a certain date.
Predicting Industry Economic Activity
Published:
In this post I discuss whether there is useful information contained in industry-specific credit spreads for predicting economic activity.
The pre-RBA drift
Published:
In this post I discuss the pre-FOMC drift and whether there exists a pre-RBA drift.
Monetary policy and beliefs
Published:
In this post I discuss monetary policy communication and macroeconomic forecasts.
Stock splits and fractional stock trading
Published:
In this post I discuss persistence in the popularity of stock splits.
Inflation expectations and CBO announcements
Published:
In this post I ask a simple question, do expectations of future inflation change on Congressional Budget Office (CBO) announcement days? Specifically, I examine the announcement of the CBO’s budget deficit forecasts, which occur semi-annually.
portfolio
Portfolio item number 2
Short description of portfolio item number 2 
publications
talks
Talk 1 on Relevant Topic in Your Field
Published:
This is a description of your talk, which is a markdown files that can be all markdown-ified like any other post. Yay markdown!
Conference Proceeding talk 3 on Relevant Topic in Your Field
Published:
This is a description of your conference proceedings talk, note the different field in type. You can put anything in this field.